Tout ne va pas si mal ?

Lu dans le Wall Street Journal Europe ce matin :

"By SEBASTIAN MOFFETT

PARIS -- France, which has long resisted textbook free-market economics, could weather the downturn slightly better than its neighbors in the near term. Figures due to be released by the government Friday are expected to show that France, unlike other European economies -- including Germany, the U.K., Italy and Spain -- didn't fall into recession during the second half of 2008. Recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, and France's economy grew slightly in the third quarter.

(Photo de Christine Lagarde : Associated Press

Nevertheless, the government is expected to report that fourth-quarter GDP declined by about 1%, some economists say. The government will also release third-quarter figures revised from the earlier estimate of scant 0.1% growth.

The number of unemployed rose 2.2% in December from the previous month. The most recent national unemployment rate, for November, was 7.9%.

The International Monetary Fund forecast that France's economy will shrink a little more than 1% over 2009 and 2010 -- half the contraction predicted for Germany and the U.K. More optimistic forecasts in December by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development put France ahead of other big European economies.

Some economists say France is cushioned by its bloated public sector and because it doesn't rely on a sole segment of its economy. Germany and Japan, in contrast, rely on exports to grow.

"France doesn't have a big problem of its own at the moment," says Nicolas Véron of Bruegel, a Brussels think tank. "It has traditionally been seen as a weakness that it doesn't have sector specialization. But in the current circumstances it is not a bad thing."

A large number of French people are employed by the government. According to the OECD, in 2007 France had 91 public jobs for every 1,000 inhabitants, compared with 49 in Germany.

Public spending was equivalent to 52.4% of GDP in 2007, according to the OECD, compared with 44.4% for the U.K. The U.S. equivalent was 37.4%.

For years, economists have blamed France's substantial public sector -- along with heavy regulation -- for holding back growth. The French economy averaged 1.9% annual growth from 2002 to 2007, compared with 2.7% for the U.K.

Because most governments seldom shed workers quickly -- particularly during a downturn -- a bigger public sector means that a country's overall wages -- and, thus consumption -- tend to hold up.

President Nicolas Sarkozy, who pledged to make the country's economy more nimble, has made limited progress. France's social benefits still reach extraordinary lengths. For example, many entertainers, such as actors, qualify for enhanced unemployment benefits. As their work often is irregular -- some engagements are for a single production and others for the summer season -- the government helps smooth over bumps in their pay.

About 100,000 people, from circus performers to cameramen, have qualified as "intermittent show business workers." In 2005, they received more than €1.2 billion ($1.55 billion) in benefits.

Beyond high public spending, other practices that some economists considered hindrances to French growth now are credited with sparing the nation's economy an even worse hit.

French banks are relatively cautious and demand hefty downpayments before lending money to buy property. Though French house prices are forecast to decline in the coming year, the fall is expected to be modest compared with countries where banks loaned more readily.

Also, France has big companies in different sectors, such as banks and pharmaceuticals. Countries dominated by a single sector face sharper downturns.

Economists warn that there is a long-term caveat to France's practices. When the world economy eventually recovers, France will return to a pattern of slower growth, says Laurence Boone, an economist at Barclays Capital.

"France will benefit less from the rebound in exports" than Germany, she says. "You can't say that the French model is better." "

Ca fait du bien d'avoir de temps en temps un point de vue extérieur, qui montre que tout le monde n'est pas forcément catastrophiste. Même si notre modèle n'est pas forcément le meilleur, surtout aux yeux  du dogme dominant, il a du moins ses avantages qu'il est étonnant de voir ainsi reconnus. On peut noter aussi que, malgré l'ironie répétée autour des propos de Christine Lagarde qui refusait de parler de récession, il se trouve qu'on lui donne raison selon les critères internationaux.

De là à ce que ça se ressente sur les résultats des clubs de foot français en coupe d'Europe... ...